This made me laugh: How our forecasts have improved -Simply not true!

On Sunday, down here in the South, we were promised rain every day this week. Each day it has been sunny, but each day they have changed the forecast, but still saying it will rain the next day or so.

At 3pm yesterday the weather report was for a mild evening 7-10C and light rain before midnight, then heavy rain today.

In reality it was very cold with completely clear skies last night. Today is bright and sunny with some high level cloud so they could not have got it more wrong!

In my experience, the short term weather forecast in recent years has become incredibly unreliable. So unreliable that I am at the point of not taking any notice of these people anymore!

This weekend we have consistently been promised good weather,,, I FORECAST HEAVY RAIN.

Well it’s a UK Bank Holiday, it HAS to rain! 😆

The weather forecast on the BBC last night was absolutely spot on for today. The weather is a constantly changing thing you know, and predictions are only that PREDICTIONS, not absolute confirmations, and are subject to change at any time, as is the unpredictable nature of the weather.
I too have been pleasantly surprised by that lack of rain this week, but if you have watched the forecast regularly, it has changed in keeping with the changing conditions.
It is no good looking at the weather at the beginning of the week and assuming it will stay the same – weather isn’t like that, and nor are the forecasts.

You seem to be judging them on one weeks worth of data, at a single location though.

When analysing forecast performance bear in mind that when they get it wrong that this is a “noticable event”, when they get it right we don’t even think about it. So if he gets the weather spot on 300 days a year, not quite right 33 days of the year, and way off 32 days of the year – we moan its useless…

I love em. One click on my phone in bed in the morning, gives me weather for next 24 hours and it’s generally right so i pick the right clothes. GAWD BLESS THE BBC!

I was watching the BBC forecasts on a daily basis too. Just as unreliable! I can only judge the weather on where I am, but this is not one week’s observance, i’ve been observing for years.

Perhaps there is a microclimate that follows me round that is totally different from the rest of the country.

Everyone I know in real life says the same, so perhaps STW users live on a different planet us people in the real world.

Someone mentioned a weather website that based it’s forecasts on solar activity and was far more accurate than the met office. Buggered if I can remember what it was though???

I was watching the BBC forecasts on a daily basis too. Just as unreliable! I can only judge the weather on where I am, but this is not one week’s observance, i’ve been observing for years.

Observing all the forecasts, and recording how good they were? Or (I bet) just moaning about the times that they got it wrong?

The people who work at the met office on weather forecasting are paid bonuses based on forecast goodness, which is measured by actually looking at real performance, including when they get it right, and they have been getting better at it for years. That’s just a simple fact, and no amount of moaning about the times they get it wrong will change that.

Joe

The thing that does make me laugh is people who expect the weather forecast to be 100% accurate all the time.

I find the BBC (aka the Met Office) to be about as reliable as anyone (including MetCheck), and yes, they do get it wrong from time to time, but that is to be expected.

I have notice that the forecast the BBC give on their website actually refers to the worst case situation, so when it says “heavy showers” they mean that there could be heavy showers at any point within that 24hour period.

The BBC and the Met Office do NOT talk to each other.
Go on the BBC ‘s site and you’ll see in an instant that it’s not remotely similar to the Met’s.
Always go to the Met’s
They have got it wrong every day bar Monday here in Sunny Watford
Remember: the Met Offoice have a collective case of Post Michael Fish-itus. If in doubt, tell the great-unwashed it’s going to be horrible, wet, windy and you’d best stay in doors or re-attach your Crud Catchers again.
The answer: Go, get your bike out; ride.
Hope that helps.
Tim

….its gonna be a bit windy, but we never have Hurricanes here in the UK!…. nuff ‘said

Weatheractive (I think) used to do the forecasting based on sunspot activity. I think.

….its gonna be a bit windy, but we never have Hurricanes here in the UK!…. nuff ‘said

FFS That was over 20 years ago, get over it.

I follow the weather throughout the week, on both the BBC and the Met Office, and I actually find them relatively accurate for where I live here in West Sussex.

Exactly. We do live on a somewhat-hard-to-predict island anyway, thank god.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8026668.stm

Don’t read this then.

The weather is a constantly changing thing you know, and predictions are only that PREDICTIONS, not absolute confirmations, and are subject to change at any time, as is the unpredictable nature of the weather

yes but it is actually predictably unpredicatable!

what i hate is that the forecast is presented as certainty when a lot of the time it isn’t – i like the old isobars and a good looking woman without child telling me that there is some possibility that a front may or may not move and that it will be wet but it might be in morning it might be afternoon

the other question i’ve got is does really rain every day in Northern Ireland?

what i hate is that the forecast is presented as certainty when a lot of the time it isn’t

I haven’t seen a recent forecast that says it is a certainty: Most of the language they use on the BBC is “is likely to” or “this is the way it is looking” or other such measured responses.

the other question i’ve got is does really rain every day in Northern Ireland?

It has done every time i’ve been there!

The Met office is useless.They very often get “actuals” wrong..how do they do that ?(the old joke of the met office not having any windows in the building)Why they try and predict any weather more than 3 days in advance is a mystery…but don’t worry they are positive about how the climate will change in the next 100 years !! FFS tomorrow’s weather would be a start !

Everybody’s an armchair expert when it comes to weather.

they do a damn good job and they even have windows….

I’ve always used the one on the BBC homepage for a quick reference, only switching to the Met office this week as the beeb has been gash, but the Met office has been spot on all week.

“brightening up in the west this afternoon”

Still lashing it down here 🙄

your not far enough west then, beautiful evening down here in devon.

I can throw a stone onto Offa’s dyke,can’t get more West of England than that !!

This is a line from the summer 08 prediction from this time last year
“the risk of exceptional rainfall on the same scale as the summer of last year remains a very low probability.”

HAHAHA idiots 😆